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本期要(yao)點：

一、政策動(dong)態

（一）中(zhong)國(guo)銀保監會發布《關于規范信(xin)托(tuo)公(gong)司(si)信(xin)托(tuo)業務分類的通知》

（二）銀行業保險業健(jian)全公司治理三年行動取得明顯成效(xiao)

（三(san)）財(cai)政部對德(de)勤和華融依法(fa)作出(chu)行政處罰

二、行業訊息

（一）資管(guan)公司全方位幫扶助力鄉(xiang)村振興(xing)

（二）雅居(ju)樂信托(tuo)項目(mu)違(wei)約

（三）2023年(nian)債券(quan)市場投資分析(xi)與展望

來源：浙商(shang)資產研(yan)究(jiu)院(yuan)

一、政策(ce)動態

（一）中國銀保監(jian)會(hui)發(fa)布《關于規范信(xin)托(tuo)公司信(xin)托(tuo)業務(wu)分類的通知》

近年(nian)來，信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托公(gong)司信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)持(chi)續(xu)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)，業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)形式不斷創新。為厘清各(ge)(ge)類信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)邊界和服務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)內涵，引導信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托公(gong)司以(yi)(yi)規(gui)范(fan)方(fang)式發(fa)(fa)揮信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托制(zhi)度(du)優(you)勢(shi)，豐富(fu)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托本源(yuan)業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)供給，鞏(gong)固亂象治理成(cheng)(cheng)果，銀(yin)保監會發(fa)(fa)布了《關(guan)于規(gui)范(fan)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托公(gong)司信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)分類的(de)通(tong)知》（以(yi)(yi)下簡稱《通(tong)知》）。《通(tong)知》強調信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托公(gong)司受托人定(ding)位(wei)，根據各(ge)(ge)類信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托服務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)的(de)實質，以(yi)(yi)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托目的(de)、信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托成(cheng)(cheng)立方(fang)式、信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托財產管理內容為分類維度(du)，將信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)分為資(zi)產服務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托、資(zi)產管理信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托、公(gong)益(yi)慈善信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托三大(da)類，并在(zai)每一大(da)類業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)下細(xi)分信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)子項，規(gui)范(fan)每項業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)的(de)定(ding)義、邊界、服務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)內容和禁止事項，明確分類工作(zuo)的(de)責任主體和工作(zuo)要求。《通(tong)知》是推動信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托行業(ye)轉型發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)一項基礎性制(zhi)度(du)，對于促進行業(ye)回歸(gui)(gui)本源(yuan)、實現持(chi)續(xu)健康發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)具有積極作(zuo)用。下一步，銀(yin)保監會將引導信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托公(gong)司做好《通(tong)知》實施工作(zuo)，完(wan)善相關(guan)配套制(zhi)度(du)，促進各(ge)(ge)類信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)回歸(gui)(gui)本源(yuan)，規(gui)范(fan)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。

評論：信托公(gong)司監(jian)(jian)管(guan)引導的方向(xiang)是將(jiang)目(mu)前的混業(ye)經(jing)營(ying)轉向(xiang)專業(ye)經(jing)營(ying)，氛圍資(zi)產服務信托、資(zi)產管(guan)理信托、公(gong)益(yi)慈善信托三(san)大類，避免(mian)混業(ye)經(jing)營(ying)帶來的監(jian)(jian)管(guan)套利，提升信托公(gong)司的專業(ye)性和行業(ye)深度，開發多(duo)層次的資(zi)本市(shi)場投資(zi)者(zhe)。

（二）銀(yin)行業(ye)(ye)保(bao)險業(ye)(ye)健全公司治理(li)三年(nian)行動取得(de)明顯成效

習近平總書記強(qiang)調，要(yao)完善現代金融企業(ye)制(zhi)度(du)，完善公(gong)(gong)司(si)法人治(zhi)(zhi)理結構。銀保(bao)監會(hui)(hui)黨委(wei)堅(jian)決貫徹黨中(zhong)(zhong)央(yang)決策部署，緊(jin)緊(jin)抓(zhua)住公(gong)(gong)司(si)治(zhi)(zhi)理“牛鼻子(zi)”，將加(jia)強(qiang)公(gong)(gong)司(si)治(zhi)(zhi)理監管(guan)作為(wei)一把手工程(cheng)，統(tong)(tong)籌(chou)(chou)謀劃，強(qiang)力推(tui)動(dong)(dong)。2020年(nian)，在深入研究分(fen)析我國銀行業(ye)保(bao)險(xian)業(ye)公(gong)(gong)司(si)治(zhi)(zhi)理現狀和(he)問題的(de)基礎(chu)上，制(zhi)定發布《健(jian)全(quan)銀行業(ye)保(bao)險(xian)業(ye)公(gong)(gong)司(si)治(zhi)(zhi)理三年(nian)行動(dong)(dong)方案(an)（2020—2022年(nian)）》。三年(nian)來，監管(guan)部門多管(guan)齊下、標本兼治(zhi)(zhi)，以加(jia)強(qiang)黨的(de)領導推(tui)動(dong)(dong)制(zhi)度(du)優(you)勢轉化為(wei)治(zhi)(zhi)理效能(neng)，以重拳整治(zhi)(zhi)亂象促進股(gu)東(dong)股(gu)權(quan)和(he)關聯交易規(gui)(gui)范管(guan)理，以完善制(zhi)度(du)機制(zhi)增(zeng)強(qiang)自上而下的(de)內部風(feng)險(xian)控制(zhi)能(neng)力，推(tui)動(dong)(dong)中(zhong)(zhong)國特色(se)現代金融企業(ye)制(zhi)度(du)建設(she)邁(mai)上了新臺階。規(gui)(gui)范有效的(de)公(gong)(gong)司(si)治(zhi)(zhi)理是金融機構穩健(jian)發展的(de)基石。2020年(nian)至2022年(nian)，銀保(bao)監會(hui)(hui)聚焦大股(gu)東(dong)操縱、內部人控制(zhi)等突(tu)出(chu)亂象，堅(jian)持問題導向和(he)系統(tong)(tong)思(si)維，按照標本兼治(zhi)(zhi)、分(fen)類施策、統(tong)(tong)籌(chou)(chou)推(tui)進的(de)原(yuan)則(ze)，深入開(kai)展銀行業(ye)保(bao)險(xian)業(ye)健(jian)全(quan)公(gong)(gong)司(si)治(zhi)(zhi)理三年(nian)行動(dong)(dong)，取(qu)得明顯(xian)成效。

       評論：現代金融體系是建立在資本市場上的市場化交易，股東股權不規范交易會導致金融機構股東的非市場化介入，導致交易過程中不能保持中立原則，最終讓金融消費者受到利益損害。過去民營資本無序擴張導致金融體系秩序混亂的情況將得到改善。

（三）財(cai)政(zheng)(zheng)部對德勤和華(hua)融依法(fa)作出(chu)行政(zheng)(zheng)處(chu)罰

據(ju)財(cai)(cai)(cai)政(zheng)(zheng)部(bu)(bu)3月(yue)17日(ri)消息，自2021年(nian)起，財(cai)(cai)(cai)政(zheng)(zheng)部(bu)(bu)對中(zhong)國(guo)華(hua)(hua)融(rong)(rong)資產管理股份有(you)限公司(si)（以下(xia)簡稱(cheng)華(hua)(hua)融(rong)(rong)）會計(ji)(ji)信息質(zhi)量及其審(shen)計(ji)(ji)機構德勤華(hua)(hua)永會計(ji)(ji)師事務所（以下(xia)簡稱(cheng)德勤）執(zhi)(zhi)業質(zhi)量開展了(le)檢(jian)查。財(cai)(cai)(cai)政(zheng)(zheng)部(bu)(bu)成立專項(xiang)檢(jian)查組，對華(hua)(hua)融(rong)(rong)和德勤分(fen)(fen)(fen)別開展現場檢(jian)查，問(wen)詢訪(fang)談相關人員，查閱復(fu)制相關資料，廣(guang)泛調查取(qu)證(zheng)(zheng)，向(xiang)華(hua)(hua)融(rong)(rong)、德勤征求檢(jian)查意(yi)見，對檢(jian)查發(fa)現問(wen)題進(jin)行(xing)了(le)數(shu)次集(ji)中(zhong)審(shen)理和專家論證(zheng)(zheng)。2023年(nian)2月(yue)24日(ri)至(zhi)3月(yue)6日(ri)，據(ju)當事人申(shen)請(qing)，財(cai)(cai)(cai)政(zheng)(zheng)部(bu)(bu)依法(fa)對德勤組織了(le)聽證(zheng)(zheng)會，充分(fen)(fen)(fen)聽取(qu)了(le)陳述和申(shen)辯(bian)意(yi)見，對有(you)關事實進(jin)行(xing)了(le)辯(bian)論和質(zhi)證(zheng)(zheng)，確(que)保事實清楚、證(zheng)(zheng)據(ju)確(que)鑿、定性準(zhun)確(que)、程序合(he)法(fa)。經查，華(hua)(hua)融(rong)(rong)2014至(zhi)2019年(nian)度不同程度存在(zai)內部(bu)(bu)控(kong)制和風險控(kong)制失(shi)效、會計(ji)(ji)信息嚴(yan)重失(shi)真等問(wen)題。德勤未(wei)(wei)充分(fen)(fen)(fen)關注(zhu)華(hua)(hua)融(rong)(rong)多項(xiang)經濟業務實質(zhi)，未(wei)(wei)穿透審(shen)計(ji)(ji)底層資產真實狀(zhuang)況(kuang)，對重大投資事項(xiang)忽略審(shen)批合(he)規性，對已識(shi)別的異常交易未(wei)(wei)恰當發(fa)表審(shen)計(ji)(ji)意(yi)見，未(wei)(wei)能客觀評價企業資產狀(zhuang)況(kuang)，未(wei)(wei)能準(zhun)確(que)評估預期信用損(sun)失(shi)模型參數(shu)的合(he)理性，在(zai)提供審(shen)計(ji)(ji)服(fu)務期間(jian)，未(wei)(wei)保持職(zhi)業懷疑態度，未(wei)(wei)有(you)效執(zhi)(zhi)行(xing)必要的審(shen)計(ji)(ji)程序，未(wei)(wei)獲取(qu)充分(fen)(fen)(fen)適當的審(shen)計(ji)(ji)證(zheng)(zheng)據(ju)，存在(zai)嚴(yan)重審(shen)計(ji)(ji)缺陷。

評論(lun)：新(xin)金融(rong)會(hui)計準(zhun)則(ze)雖(sui)然在國外是已經運行過多年的(de)(de)共識規范，但是進入我(wo)國還是一個比較(jiao)新(xin)的(de)(de)規則(ze)體(ti)系，而(er)且我(wo)國企業對新(xin)金融(rong)會(hui)計準(zhun)則(ze)的(de)(de)準(zhun)備也不(bu)足(zu)，因此對相(xiang)關(guan)模型參數的(de)(de)使用方法(fa)存在溝通差異，從(cong)最終(zhong)判決來看象征意義(yi)大(da)于懲罰目的(de)(de)。

二、行業資訊

（一(yi)）資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)管公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)全方位幫(bang)(bang)(bang)(bang)扶(fu)(fu)(fu)助(zhu)力(li)(li)(li)鄉(xiang)村(cun)振興《金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)時報》記者在采訪(fang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)獲悉(xi)，早在2002年，金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)管理(li)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)就開始承擔定(ding)點幫(bang)(bang)(bang)(bang)扶(fu)(fu)(fu)任(ren)務(wu)。20多年來，資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)管公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)投(tou)入大(da)量資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)、人力(li)(li)(li)和(he)物力(li)(li)(li)推(tui)進幫(bang)(bang)(bang)(bang)扶(fu)(fu)(fu)工(gong)作。2022年，資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)管公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)加大(da)幫(bang)(bang)(bang)(bang)扶(fu)(fu)(fu)力(li)(li)(li)度，助(zhu)力(li)(li)(li)定(ding)點單位鄉(xiang)村(cun)振興工(gong)作開好局、起好步。具(ju)備綜合(he)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)服務(wu)能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)管公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)發(fa)揮(hui)自身(shen)服務(wu)優勢，運用多種工(gong)具(ju)幫(bang)(bang)(bang)(bang)助(zhu)脫貧(pin)地區(qu)提升產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)發(fa)展的(de)內(nei)生(sheng)動力(li)(li)(li)。比如，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國信(xin)(xin)(xin)達(da)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)管理(li)股(gu)份有(you)限(xian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)（以(yi)下簡稱“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國信(xin)(xin)(xin)達(da)”）設立(li)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國信(xin)(xin)(xin)達(da)扶(fu)(fu)(fu)貧(pin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)發(fa)展基金(jin)(jin)(jin)”以(yi)及“信(xin)(xin)(xin)達(da)大(da)愛”慈(ci)善(shan)信(xin)(xin)(xin)托，加大(da)對偏遠困難地區(qu)“三農”客(ke)戶資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)支持，幫(bang)(bang)(bang)(bang)助(zhu)某企業(ye)發(fa)行扶(fu)(fu)(fu)貧(pin)專項(xiang)(xiang)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)債券(quan)，通過融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)租賃資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)助(zhu)特(te)定(ding)項(xiang)(xiang)目等(deng)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國華融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)管理(li)股(gu)份有(you)限(xian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)（以(yi)下簡稱“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國華融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)”）打出“租賃+基金(jin)(jin)(jin)+信(xin)(xin)(xin)托+保險+培訓”的(de)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)幫(bang)(bang)(bang)(bang)扶(fu)(fu)(fu)“組合(he)拳”，設立(li)“華融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)—宣漢(han)鄉(xiang)村(cun)振興產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)基金(jin)(jin)(jin)”，推(tui)廣融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)租賃幫(bang)(bang)(bang)(bang)扶(fu)(fu)(fu)模式，同時，還與保險公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)合(he)作，為(wei)脫貧(pin)戶等(deng)群體免費提供保險保障，與銀行合(he)作開展貸款(kuan)貼(tie)息(xi)項(xiang)(xiang)目。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國東方資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)管理(li)股(gu)份有(you)限(xian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)（以(yi)下簡稱“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國東方”）與縣(xian)(xian)級擔保公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)合(he)作，推(tui)出包括“生(sheng)豬(zhu)擔”等(deng)貼(tie)合(he)基層現(xian)實、頗具(ju)特(te)色的(de)擔保產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品，服務(wu)“三農”和(he)小微企業(ye)。用投(tou)行思維重(zhong)組陜西(xi)省寶雞市隴縣(xian)(xian)地方政府融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)平臺公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)，是中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國長(chang)城(cheng)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)管理(li)股(gu)份有(you)限(xian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)（以(yi)下簡稱“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國長(chang)城(cheng)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)”）實施金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)幫(bang)(bang)(bang)(bang)扶(fu)(fu)(fu)的(de)一(yi)個獨特(te)亮(liang)點。此外(wai)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國長(chang)城(cheng)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)在隴縣(xian)(xian)創新推(tui)出“羊乳貸”、鄉(xiang)村(cun)振興保險等(deng)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品，幫(bang)(bang)(bang)(bang)助(zhu)寶雞市相關部門設立(li)了第一(yi)只紓困基金(jin)(jin)(jin)，促進該市小額信(xin)(xin)(xin)貸快速(su)增長(chang)。

評論(lun)：金(jin)(jin)融(rong)資產(chan)管理(li)公(gong)司在扶貧濟困中充分應用新(xin)的商業模式，利用多金(jin)(jin)融(rong)牌照(zhao)能夠打出組合拳，為(wei)鄉(xiang)村振興提供(gong)多種(zhong)角度的金(jin)(jin)融(rong)服務。此外還(huan)可以借(jie)助不良資產(chan)處置方(fang)面的專業優勢，整合與提升(sheng)鄉(xiang)村金(jin)(jin)融(rong)體系(xi)，完善農村的長期性金(jin)(jin)融(rong)服務基礎設置。

（二(er)）雅居樂信托(tuo)項目違(wei)約(yue)

近日，一(yi)筆(bi)雅居(ju)樂(le)(le)紹(shao)興(xing)柯橋(qiao)信(xin)托項(xiang)(xiang)目違(wei)約(yue)延(yan)(yan)(yan)期(qi)的(de)事件，將公眾(zhong)目光(guang)聚(ju)焦(jiao)在尚未(wei)出險(xian)的(de)民營房企——雅居(ju)樂(le)(le)。該(gai)事件聚(ju)焦(jiao)在三個(ge)關(guan)(guan)注點：第(di)(di)一(yi)，這(zhe)是(shi)雅居(ju)樂(le)(le)第(di)(di)一(yi)個(ge)信(xin)托產(chan)品發生(sheng)延(yan)(yan)(yan)期(qi)事件，中信(xin)登(deng)信(xin)息顯示(shi)，這(zhe)是(shi)一(yi)個(ge)股權(quan)投資(zi)項(xiang)(xiang)目。第(di)(di)二，信(xin)托計劃投資(zi)的(de)標的(de)項(xiang)(xiang)目——柯橋(qiao)柯巖B-48地(di)塊，此前由祥生(sheng)集(ji)團(tuan)和(he)雅居(ju)樂(le)(le)聯合開發。第(di)(di)三，該(gai)項(xiang)(xiang)目土地(di)款(kuan)(kuan)(kuan)總價為20.4億(yi)元，首筆(bi)土地(di)款(kuan)(kuan)(kuan)支付10.2億(yi)元，剩余未(wei)支付。目前已(yi)經(jing)申(shen)請退(tui)地(di)并簽(qian)署(shu)了合同解除(chu)協議，退(tui)地(di)款(kuan)(kuan)(kuan)尚未(wei)到(dao)賬(zhang)。 針對此次違(wei)約(yue)事件，雅居(ju)樂(le)(le)集(ji)團(tuan)回復搜(sou)狐財經(jing)稱：“這(zhe)個(ge)項(xiang)(xiang)目是(shi)股權(quan)合作(zuo)，不是(shi)債(zhai)，所以違(wei)約(yue)和(he)我們關(guan)(guan)系(xi)不大。項(xiang)(xiang)目層面祥生(sheng)在溝(gou)通政(zheng)府退(tui)地(di)，本來是(shi)用退(tui)地(di)款(kuan)(kuan)(kuan)來歸還(huan)信(xin)托產(chan)品，但是(shi)退(tui)地(di)進(jin)展太(tai)慢，還(huan)沒到(dao)賬(zhang)。” 某位業內資(zi)深人士則告訴(su)搜(sou)狐財經(jing)：“本質上雅居(ju)樂(le)(le)還(huan)是(shi)違(wei)約(yue)了。雅居(ju)樂(le)(le)的(de)意思(si)是(shi)，祥生(sheng)不想開發，要(yao)求(qiu)退(tui)地(di)給政(zheng)府，好(hao)退(tui)款(kuan)(kuan)(kuan)還(huan)錢(qian)。這(zhe)是(shi)賴賬(zhang)，倒逼政(zheng)府退(tui)地(di)的(de)做(zuo)法。”  據(ju)了解，這(zhe)并非雅居(ju)樂(le)(le)非標首次出現(xian)延(yan)(yan)(yan)期(qi)違(wei)約(yue)支付情況。票交所顯示(shi)，雅居(ju)樂(le)(le)系(xi)已(yi)有超10家企業連續多月(yue)登(deng)上票據(ju)承兌人逾期(qi)名(ming)單。 

評論：聯合開發(fa)合同中約定(ding)是(shi)股權(quan)合作，因此項目(mu)違約不涉(she)及(ji)投(tou)資人(ren)之(zhi)間的(de)(de)糾紛，項目(mu)層面的(de)(de)風險來源于祥生和(he)地方政府之(zhi)間的(de)(de)糾紛，但(dan)是(shi)對于雅居樂而言風險是(shi)被動發(fa)生的(de)(de)，因此項目(mu)違約應追索根源機構。

（三(san)）2023年債券(quan)市場投資分析與展望

總(zong)體(ti)來看，2022年債(zhai)券市(shi)場(chang)在穩增(zeng)長強預期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)和(he)(he)疫(yi)情擾(rao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)弱現實格局下整(zheng)體(ti)走(zou)(zou)出(chu)震(zhen)蕩行情，走(zou)(zou)勢一波(bo)(bo)三折(zhe)，波(bo)(bo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)幅(fu)度較小，但波(bo)(bo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)增(zeng)加，10年期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)國(guo)債(zhai)年初和(he)(he)年末(mo)均在2.8%水平，上(shang)(shang)下調整(zheng)幅(fu)度在30個基點(dian)左右，波(bo)(bo)段(duan)(duan)嵌套波(bo)(bo)段(duan)(duan)，波(bo)(bo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)區間收(shou)窄，交易難(nan)度較大。前三個季度，寬信用進程低(di)于預期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)，“資產荒”的交易特(te)征明(ming)顯(xian)，總(zong)體(ti)持(chi)債(zhai)體(ti)驗尚(shang)好。以(yi)10年期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)國(guo)債(zhai)為參考，2022年1月央行超預期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)降(jiang)息帶(dai)動(dong)(dong)(dong)10年期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)國(guo)債(zhai)下探到(dao)2.67%的水平，此(ci)后(hou)受到(dao)社融數據超預期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)、美聯儲開始加息、上(shang)(shang)海疫(yi)情等影響，債(zhai)券市(shi)場(chang)反復波(bo)(bo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)。8月央行再度超預期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)降(jiang)息，帶(dai)動(dong)(dong)(dong)10年期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)國(guo)債(zhai)降(jiang)至2.6%的年內最低(di)水平，走(zou)(zou)出(chu)一波(bo)(bo)30個基點(dian)幅(fu)度的標準牛市(shi)行情。進入四季度，在資金面不(bu)斷抬(tai)升的影響下，10年期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)國(guo)債(zhai)波(bo)(bo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)向(xiang)上(shang)(shang)，此(ci)后(hou)受到(dao)地(di)產政策和(he)(he)疫(yi)情政策明(ming)顯(xian)轉向(xiang)影響，進入快速下跌模式，并(bing)形成連鎖(suo)反應，資金利率加速回(hui)(hui)歸(gui)、利率加速向(xiang)上(shang)(shang)、信用利差(cha)不(bu)斷走(zou)(zou)闊，10年期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)國(guo)債(zhai)最高上(shang)(shang)行至2.99%后(hou)回(hui)(hui)落至2.8%的年初水平。

評論：2023年經濟從一季(ji)度表現(xian)(xian)(xian)來看(kan)尚未實(shi)質性復蘇，因(yin)此依(yi)然是強預期(qi)疊加(jia)弱(ruo)(ruo)現(xian)(xian)(xian)實(shi)的疲軟行情，國債收(shou)(shou)益(yi)率(lv)在(zai)受到貨幣政策指導的低區(qu)間運行，同時弱(ruo)(ruo)現(xian)(xian)(xian)實(shi)導致的市場參與(yu)者恐慌情緒又疊加(jia)出增幅波動(dong)性。總體(ti)上看(kan)國債收(shou)(shou)益(yi)率(lv)將走出弱(ruo)(ruo)現(xian)(xian)(xian)實(shi)重新回歸(gui)，溫和(he)通(tong)脹則(ze)會(hui)讓國債收(shou)(shou)益(yi)率(lv)逐步上行。