浙商(shang)資產研究院《金(jin)融行業(ye)周報》（第366期）
發布時間：
2025年12月(yue)23日 17:00
央行發(fa)布(bu)一次性(xing)信用修復政策，支(zhi)持個(ge)人便捷重塑(su)信用；內資主導(dao)、辦(ban)公為(wei)王(wang)，2025年上海大宗交易市場結(jie)構性回暖；匯源重整投資人違約風(feng)波(bo)：文盛資產拒付8.5億(yi)元，匯源集團(tuan)提起訴訟(song)爭取控制權。為應對(dui)新(xin)冠疫情的后續影響，支持(chi)積(ji)極還(huan)款(kuan)的個人(ren)(ren)(ren)高效便捷地重(zhong)塑信(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)，中(zhong)國人(ren)(ren)(ren)民銀(yin)行(xing)于2025年(nian)(nian)12月(yue)(yue)22日(ri)(ri)正式發布一(yi)次(ci)性信(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)修復政(zheng)(zheng)策。政(zheng)(zheng)策核心(xin)(xin)內容(rong)是，對(dui)于2020年(nian)(nian)1月(yue)(yue)1日(ri)(ri)至2025年(nian)(nian)12月(yue)(yue)31日(ri)(ri)期間發生(sheng)、單筆逾期金額(e)不(bu)(bu)超過1萬(wan)元人(ren)(ren)(ren)民幣的個人(ren)(ren)(ren)信(xin)貸逾期記錄，若個人(ren)(ren)(ren)在2026年(nian)(nian)3月(yue)(yue)31日(ri)(ri)（含）前(qian)足(zu)額(e)還(huan)清欠款(kuan)，則該(gai)逾期信(xin)息將(jiang)不(bu)(bu)會在其個人(ren)(ren)(ren)信(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)報告(gao)中(zhong)展(zhan)示(shi)(shi)。其中(zhong)，在2025年(nian)(nian)11月(yue)(yue)30日(ri)(ri)前(qian)還(huan)清的，自2026年(nian)(nian)1月(yue)(yue)1日(ri)(ri)起不(bu)(bu)予展(zhan)示(shi)(shi)；在2025年(nian)(nian)12月(yue)(yue)1日(ri)(ri)至2026年(nian)(nian)3月(yue)(yue)31日(ri)(ri)期間還(huan)清的，在還(huan)清次(ci)月(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)底(di)前(qian)完(wan)成處理。此次(ci)修復將(jiang)由中(zhong)國人(ren)(ren)(ren)民銀(yin)行(xing)征信(xin)中(zhong)心(xin)(xin)統(tong)一(yi)進行(xing)技術處理，無需個人(ren)(ren)(ren)主動申請(qing)。為配合政(zheng)(zheng)策實(shi)施(shi)，2026年(nian)(nian)上半年(nian)(nian)個人(ren)(ren)(ren)每年(nian)(nian)額(e)外增加兩次(ci)免費查詢(xun)信(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)報告(gao)的機會。該(gai)政(zheng)(zheng)策旨在精準幫扶(fu)受(shou)疫情影響的輕微失信(xin)個體，助力經(jing)濟持(chi)續回升(sheng)向好。【評論】個(ge)人(ren)(ren)信(xin)用修(xiu)復(fu)政策對(dui)個(ge)貸領域(yu)是(shi)一(yi)個(ge)直接的利好，因(yin)為經過個(ge)人(ren)(ren)信(xin)用修(xiu)復(fu)可以讓原本(ben)無法通過征信(xin)的個(ge)人(ren)(ren)重新獲得信(xin)用，增(zeng)加社會的潛在融(rong)資群體(ti)(ti)。當然也有批評指出(chu)，如(ru)此操作(zuo)會導致高風(feng)險(xian)個(ge)貸增(zeng)多(duo)。盡管有一(yi)些批評，但市場需要交(jiao)易確認價值，增(zeng)加融(rong)資市場主體(ti)(ti)總體(ti)(ti)來說還是(shi)促進行業健(jian)康(kang)發展的重要一(yi)步。
2025年(nian)12月(yue)(yue)，上(shang)(shang)海大宗資產交易市場迎來(lai)年(nian)末集(ji)中放量。據市場消(xiao)息，在短短半個(ge)月(yue)(yue)內連續達(da)成5筆大型資產交易，標的涵蓋辦公、廠房(fang)、商業及酒店等多種(zhong)業態，總交易金(jin)額達(da)數十億元，買家多為科技與制(zhi)造類企業的自用或投(tou)資需(xu)求。全年(nian)來(lai)看，2025年(nian)前(qian)三季度上(shang)(shang)海大宗交易市場累計成(cheng)交(jiao)額達440億元。市(shi)場呈(cheng)現三大鮮明(ming)特征：一(yi)是內資(zi)(zi)買(mai)家已成(cheng)絕對主力，交(jiao)易金(jin)額占比超過(guo)60%，其中(zhong)險資(zi)(zi)表現尤為活躍；二是辦(ban)公物業最(zui)受青睞，占前三季度總交(jiao)易額的64.9%；三是租賃(lin)公寓憑借REITs的成(cheng)熟退出機(ji)制，成(cheng)為新興增長點，吸(xi)引多(duo)家險資(zi)(zi)布(bu)局。這一(yi)系(xi)列交(jiao)易反映(ying)了在復雜市(shi)場環(huan)境下，資(zi)(zi)金(jin)對上海核心資(zi)(zi)產長期價值(zhi)的認(ren)可與(yu)追(zhui)逐。【評(ping)論】進入到2025年底，國內(nei)(nei)經濟(ji)呈(cheng)現出(chu)L型增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的后(hou)半(ban)段，即經過市(shi)場(chang)焦慮后(hou)重新均(jun)衡的再增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，雖然增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)速度不(bu)及前幾年，但更(geng)有韌性(xing)。具(ju)體表(biao)現為(wei)國內(nei)(nei)特(te)色產(chan)(chan)品（如電動汽(qi)車等(deng)）在(zai)亞(ya)非拉市(shi)場(chang)出(chu)口有優勢，新質生產(chan)(chan)力方面有追趕態勢，京滬房地產(chan)(chan)具(ju)有較強(qiang)抗沖擊能力等(deng)，多種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)視角來看國內(nei)(nei)經濟(ji)都有一種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)“見(jian)底”的展望(wang)，2026年和(he)(he)2027年可以期望(wang)通縮結(jie)束。這種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)投資(zi)(zi)和(he)(he)消(xiao)費的韌性(xing)來自(zi)國內(nei)(nei)資(zi)(zi)金的抱團取暖，內(nei)(nei)資(zi)(zi)聚集在(zai)京滬重倉地產(chan)(chan)和(he)(he)科技形(xing)成新的經濟(ji)均(jun)衡，這種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)均(jun)衡也會(hui)成為(wei)明年發展的穩(wen)固起點。
北京(jing)(jing)匯(hui)(hui)源(yuan)食(shi)品(pin)飲(yin)料(liao)有限(xian)公(gong)司重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)案(an)持續(xu)發(fa)酵，引發(fa)市(shi)場廣(guang)泛(fan)關注。重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)方案(an)實施以來，匯(hui)(hui)源(yuan)集團(tuan)已(yi)按《重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)協(xie)議(yi)(yi)》和《增資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)協(xie)議(yi)(yi)》全(quan)(quan)面(mian)履(lv)行義務，但(dan)(dan)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)人(ren)上海文(wen)盛(sheng)(sheng)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)管理(li)(li)股份有限(xian)公(gong)司（文(wen)盛(sheng)(sheng)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)）及(ji)(ji)(ji)其指(zhi)定(ding)主體(ti)諸暨(ji)市(shi)文(wen)盛(sheng)(sheng)匯(hui)(hui)自(zi)有資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)有限(xian)公(gong)司（文(wen)盛(sheng)(sheng)匯(hui)(hui)）涉嫌嚴重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)違(wei)約(yue)(yue)。文(wen)盛(sheng)(sheng)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)承諾(nuo)的總投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)16億元中，已(yi)拒付8.5億元；已(yi)投入(ru)的7.5億元未按協(xie)議(yi)(yi)約(yue)(yue)定(ding)用于(yu)北京(jing)(jing)匯(hui)(hui)源(yuan)經營管理(li)(li)，導致公(gong)司長期依(yi)賴原有資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)高(gao)負荷運轉(zhuan)，構成(cheng)對協(xie)議(yi)(yi)的根本(ben)違(wei)約(yue)(yue)。匯(hui)(hui)源(yuan)集團(tuan)指(zhi)控(kong)文(wen)盛(sheng)(sheng)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)行為已(yi)使(shi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)計(ji)劃(hua)無(wu)法全(quan)(quan)面(mian)執(zhi)行，并(bing)涉嫌私刻公(gong)章(zhang)、申請撤銷(xiao)法院(yuan)立案(an)等(deng)不當操作。2025年(nian)12月19日(ri)，匯(hui)(hui)源(yuan)集團(tuan)向北京(jing)(jing)市(shi)第三中級人(ren)民法院(yuan)提(ti)起訴(su)訟，并(bing)申請財產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)保(bao)(bao)全(quan)(quan)，要求文(wen)盛(sheng)(sheng)匯(hui)(hui)承擔違(wei)約(yue)(yue)責任，同時爭取收回北京(jing)(jing)匯(hui)(hui)源(yuan)控(kong)制權(quan)及(ji)(ji)(ji)商(shang)標等(deng)核心資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)。該案(an)暴露(lu)了重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)人(ren)履(lv)約(yue)(yue)風險，文(wen)盛(sheng)(sheng)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)尚未公(gong)開回應，但(dan)(dan)市(shi)場分析認(ren)為，其違(wei)約(yue)(yue)或源(yuan)于(yu)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)退出(chu)(chu)路徑受阻（如推(tui)動匯(hui)(hui)源(yuan)A股上市(shi)或出(chu)(chu)售失敗(bai)）及(ji)(ji)(ji)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)壓力。匯(hui)(hui)源(yuan)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)案(an)本(ben)是消費品(pin)牌復蘇的典型，但(dan)(dan)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)人(ren)違(wei)約(yue)(yue)加劇(ju)了運營困(kun)境，凸顯(xian)房地產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)及(ji)(ji)(ji)消費領域(yu)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)執(zhi)行復雜(za)性。類似事件提(ti)醒監管需加強投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)人(ren)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)質審查與履(lv)約(yue)(yue)監督，確保(bao)(bao)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)計(ji)劃(hua)落(luo)地，保(bao)(bao)護債權(quan)人(ren)與企(qi)業利益(yi)。該案(an)后(hou)續(xu)進展將影響匯(hui)(hui)源(yuan)品(pin)牌重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)生及(ji)(ji)(ji)不良資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)處置信心。【評(ping)論】困境企業私(si)有(you)化(hua)，資產重(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)，然后重(zhong)(zhong)新上市是(shi)(shi)不良資產領域(yu)中的(de)神(shen)話操作，但具體落(luo)實則是(shi)(shi)步(bu)步(bu)驚(jing)心(xin)。匯(hui)源項目不涉(she)及私(si)有(you)化(hua)步(bu)驟，主要問題出在(zai)資產重(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)時(shi)重(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)方提供(gong)的(de)支持不夠(gou)，以(yi)及對退出路徑的(de)備選方案不完備，導(dao)致重(zhong)(zhong)組過程資金緊張。文勝資產在(zai)幾年之前(qian)是(shi)(shi)較為激進的(de)民間投資機構，在(zai)業內具有(you)一定的(de)知名(ming)度，但隨著市場競爭的(de)頭部化(hua)，大資金、長周期的(de)重(zhong)(zhong)整(zheng)(zheng)業務不再適合這個體量的(de)民間機構。
